Budget 2020 Analysis8 min read
CCS Disability Action National Senior Policy Analyst Sam Murray breaks down the numbers for Budget 2020 across the portfolios related to disability. Disabled people and their whānau have rightfully demanded better support and this budget looks to be a strong step in the right direction.
Disability Support Services Budget Breakdown
The Government’s budget for 2020 is out. I thought you might be interested in some info on the Ministry of Health’s Disability Support Services.
I go off the actual budget documents themselves and ignore press releases, so it might be different from what’s in the media.
Feel free to share this summary with anyone you think might be interested.
In a nutshell, there are large increases in spending.
The Ministry of Health estimates that it spent $1,599.2 million on Disability Support Services in 2019/20 (the financial year that has just been). This is $254.6 million more than they planned to spend. They had planned to spend $1,344.6 million.
This coming financial year (2020/21), they plan to spend$1,706.6 million. This is $107.3 million more than they estimate they spent last year.
Here it is in graph form:
And table form:
Planned and estimated spending on the Ministry of Health’s Disability Support Services in millions
| Planned spending | Estimated actual spending | |
| 2007/08 | $834 | |
| 2008/09 | $880 | $890 |
| 2009/10 | $895 | $932 |
| 2010/11 | $970 | $974 |
| 2011/12 | $1,028 | $1,028 |
| 2012/13 | $1,053 | $1,036 |
| 2013/14 | $1,103 | $1,089 |
| 2014/15 | $1,118 | $1,109 |
| 2015/16 | $1,158 | $1,167 |
| 2016/17 | $1,166 | $1,183 |
| 2017/18 | $1,208 | $1,238 |
| 2018/19 | $1,269 | $1,352 |
| 2019/20 | $1,345 | $1,599 |
| 2020/21 | $1,707 |
Below is what happened with spending in different areas between 2018/19 and 2019/20:
- Residential services went up by $197.3 million to $777.9 million.
- Community Care services went up by $119 million to $477.4 million.
- Environmental services (equipment and housing modifications) went down by $0.7 million to $167 million.
- Funded Family Care went up by $4.8 million to $16.6 million.
- Other disability supports went down by $72.8 million to just over $160.5 million.
Learning Support Budget breakdown
Here is the Budget information on the Ministry of Education’s learning support. Learning support covers supports like the Ongoing Resourcing Scheme (ORS), the Early Intervention Service, Resource Teachers, and more.
In the year been (2019/20), the Government estimates it spent $846.0 million on learning support (the Government had planned to spend $798.7 million).
This means the Government spend $47.3 million more than they planned to.
For the upcoming year (2020/21), the Government plans to spend $927.5 million on learning support. This is $81.5 million more than they spent last year.
Below is a graph of planned and estimated actual spending back to 2010. You might notice the recent trend is very similar to Disability Support Services (demand for support is growing).
Here is the same information in table form:
| Planned spending | Actual spending | |
| 2010/11 | $545,684,000 | $554,778,000 |
| 2011/12 | $574,265,000 | $576,635,000 |
| 2012/13 | $599,410,000 | $603,416,000 |
| 2013/14 | $605,212,000 | $610,808,000 |
| 2014/15 | $602,783,000 | $619,827,000 |
| 2015/16 | $635,065,000 | $637,654,000 |
| 2016/17 | $657,945,000 | $670,612,000 |
| 2017/18 | $676,733,000 | $699,000,000 |
| 2018/19 | $740,301,000 | $758,479,000 |
| 2019/20 | $798,681,000 | $845,996,000 |
| 2020/21 | $927,521,000 |
Wait times for the Early Invention Service
In the year been, the Government estimates that children waited 105 calendar days on average to access the Early Intervention Service. The Government hopes to lower this to 90 days in the year to come (still too high in my books).
Social Development Budget
Community participation and vocational services
For the year been (2019/20), the Government estimates it spent $85.4 million on community participation and vocational services (the Government had planned to spend $82.6 million). So, the Government spent $7.9 million more than they planned to.
For 2020/21, the Government plans to spend $90.5 million on community participation and vocational services. This is $5.2 million more than they spent last year.
Here is the same information in table form:
| Planned spending | Estimate actual spending | |
| 2015/16 | $77,468,000 | $78,400,000 |
| 2016/17 | $83,900,000 | $82,631,000 |
| 2017/18 | $81,160,000 | $81,160,000 |
| 2018/19 | $81,160,000 | $80,866,000 |
| 2019/20 | $82,642,000 | $85,376,000 |
| 2020/21 | $90,542,000 |
Note the pay equity settlement comes under a separate budget line. In 2019/20 Government spent $11 million on pay equity for Ministry of Social Development funded services. In 2020/21, they plan to spend $10.3 million.
Child Disability Allowance
For the year been (2019/20), the Government estimates it spent $102.2 million on the Child Disability Allowance (the Government had planned to spend $100.0 million). So, the Government spent $2.2 million more than they planned to.
For 2020/21, the Government plans to spend $106.9 million on the Child Disability Allowance. This is $4.7 million more than they spent last year.
Disability Allowance
For the year been (2019/20), the Government estimates it spent $295.0 million on the Disability Allowance (the Government had planned to spend $290.7 million). So, the Government spent $4.3 million more than they planned to.
For 2020/21, the Government plans to spend $312.4 million on the Disability Allowance. This is $17.4 million more than they spent last year.
Here is a graph showing past and planned spending on the two disability allowances:
Here is the same information in table form:
| Child Disability Allowance | Disability Allowance | |
| 2010/11 | $96,004,000 | $314,366,000 |
| 2011/12 | $90,384,000 | $312,208,000 |
| 2012/13 | $86,081,000 | $298,566,000 |
| 2013/14 | $84,016,000 | $294,553,000 |
| 2014/15 | $84,972,000 | $292,358,000 |
| 2015/16 | $86,086,000 | $290,770,000 |
| 2016/17 | $88,260,000 | $288,762,000 |
| 2017/18 | $92,379,000 | $286,641,000 |
| 2018/19 | $96,281,000 | $289,275,000 |
| 2019/20 | $102,211,000 | $294,991,000 |
| 2020/21 (planned) | $106,891,000 | $312,399,000 |
| 2021/22 (planned) | $109,342,000 | $304,319,000 |
| 2022/23 (planned) | $112,534,000 | $298,076,000 |
| 2023/24 (planned) | $116,361,000 | $297,520,000 |
Supported Living Payment
For the year been (2019/20), the Government estimates it spent $1,644.9 million on the Supported Living Payment (the Government had planned to spend $1,589.4 million). So, the Government spent $55.6 million more than they planned to.
For 2020/21, the Government plans to spend $1,806.8 million on the Supported Living Payment. This is $161.9 million more than they spent last year.
Here is the same information in table form:
| Supported Living Payment | |
| 2011/12 | $1,465,752,000 |
| 2012/13 | $1,391,858,000 |
| 2013/14 | $1,422,187,000 |
| 2014/15 | $1,511,955,000 |
| 2015/16 | $1,523,917,000 |
| 2016/17 | $1,529,520,000 |
| 2017/18 | $1,540,196,000 |
| 2018/19 | $1,555,511,000 |
| 2019/20 | $1,644,905,000 |
| 2020/21 (planned) | $1,806,819,000 |
| 2021/22 (planned) | $1,850,498,000 |
| 2022/23 (planned) | $1,936,672,000 |
| 2023/24 (planned) | $2,031,230,000 |
Jobseeker Support
I don’t usually do the Jobseeker Support Payment because it does not separate out the Health Condition and Disability version.
I thought people might be interested this time though, especially in the Government’s estimates for the next few years (because it will be based on what the Government thinks will happen with unemployment).
The Government is planning for a large spike from estimated spending of $2,373.1 million for 2019/20 to $4,521.1 million in 2020/21. This is an increase of $2,148.1 million.
This will then drop by $789.8 million to $3,731.4 million in 2021/22.
Here is the same information in table form:
| Jobseeker support | |
| 2016/17 | $1,694,839,000 |
| 2017/18 | $1,693,112,000 |
| 2018/19 | $1,853,773,000 |
| 2019/20 | $2,373,115,000 |
| 2020/21 (planned) | $4,521,173,000 |
| 2021/22 (planned) | $3,731,407,000 |
| 2022/23 (planned) | $3,175,279,000 |
| 2023/24 (planned) | $2,951,423,000 |
Sole Parent Support
For similar reasons and because an estimated 30% of disabled children live in one parent households, I thought it would be good to look at Sole Parent Support.
The Government is planning for an increase of $342.6 million to $1,577.1 million in 2020/21. Unlike Jobseeker Support, this will continue to rise in 2021/22 to $1,679.0 million.
Here is the same information in table form:
| Sole Parent Support | |
| 2016/17 | $1,163,696,000 |
| 2017/18 | $1,109,053,000 |
| 2018/19 | $1,116,103,000 |
| 2019/20 | $1,234,565,000 |
| 2020/21 (planned) | $1,577,147,000 |
| 2021/22 (planned) | $1,678,954,000 |
| 2022/23 (planned) | $1,689,164,000 |
| 2023/24 (planned) | $1,676,500,000 |
Finally, for those brave few still with me, here is the above all on one graph:
And in table form:
| Sole Parent Support | Jobseeker Support | Supported Living Payment | Child Disability Allowance | Disability Allowance | |
| 2016/17 | $ 1,163,696,000 | $ 1,694,839,000 | $ 1,529,520,000 | $ 88,260,000 | $ 288,762,000 |
| 2017/18 | $ 1,109,053,000 | $ 1,693,112,000 | $ 1,540,196,000 | $ 92,379,000 | $ 286,641,000 |
| 2018/19 | $ 1,116,103,000 | $ 1,853,773,000 | $ 1,555,511,000 | $ 96,281,000 | $ 289,275,000 |
| 2019/20 | $ 1,234,565,000 | $ 2,373,115,000 | $ 1,644,905,000 | $ 102,211,000 | $ 294,991,000 |
| 2020/21 (planned) | $ 1,577,147,000 | $ 4,521,173,000 | $ 1,806,819,000 | $ 106,891,000 | $ 312,399,000 |
| 2021/22 (planned) | $ 1,678,954,000 | $ 3,731,407,000 | $ 1,850,498,000 | $ 109,342,000 | $ 304,319,000 |
| 2022/23 (planned) | $ 1,689,164,000 | $ 3,175,279,000 | $ 1,936,672,000 | $ 112,534,000 | $ 298,076,000 |
| 2023/24 (planned) | $ 1,676,500,000 | $ 2,951,423,000 | $ 2,031,230,000 | $ 116,361,000 | $ 297,520,000 |
